Sweden’s Scenarios for Land Based Mitigation – A Summary for Policymakers

Sweden has set a goal to reach zero net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2045 and even go beyond that to achieve negative emissions. To explore how this "climate positive" future can be achieved, the Swedish Government established a commission in 2018. The commission focused on investigating three types of measures for achieving negative emissions: activities related to land-use, land-use change, and forestry; Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS); and verified emission reductions in other countries.

This summary presents different land-based mitigation technologies and practices (LMTs for short) that Sweden could adopt to contribute to its climate targets. The analysis is based on a thorough review of scientific and other relevant literature, as well as interviews with key stakeholders in the field. These interviews were conducted by consulting with local experts in the field, taking into account the political, social, and economic context of the region. The report covers various aspects, including the overall context, competition for land use, climate risks, co-benefits, trade-offs, and economic implications of each LMT. It also evaluates the risks associated with scaling up these technologies.

The analyzed LMTs are BECCS, biochar, and afforestation. BECCS is considered the primary technology for achieving negative emissions and is expected to play a significant role in helping Sweden reach its net-zero emissions target by 2045. Biochar is also recognized as an important LMT that can be expanded at national, regional, and global levels. It has the potential to remove a significant amount of CO2 from the atmosphere and can be applied in various sectors, particularly agriculture in developing countries. While afforestation is not a major focus in Sweden due to the country's already extensive forest cover, it still has relevance in relation to biochar and BECCS.

The full scenario analysis for Sweden can be found here, with key messages summarized in the sections below.

Economic Implications and Risks

This scenario analysis for Sweden also discusses the implications and risks of scaling up our four main LMTs. Here are some of the more noteworthy of these.

Interestingly, it finds that BECCS is cost-efficient compared to other emission reduction options, with estimated costs ranging from €55 to €93 per tonne of CO2 in a specific case. The report also examines biochar production and its potential applications, such as soil amendment (that is, mixing biochar into the soil) and building materials. Despite the advantages and potential uses of these LMTs, investment support is needed, along with the establishment of a market for their products in terms of carbon utilization and removal.

The biggest risk to scaling up our LMT portfolio in Sweden is that previous studies have expressed uncertainty about the feasibility of deploying such technologies on a large scale. This concern is based on the contention that the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to assess their feasibility rely on unrealistic assumptions. For example, IAMs assume the availability of vast areas of arable land for biomass production. This is unrealistic and would lead to significant biodiversity loss and risks to food security. There are no specific studies on the effects of implementing BECCS in Sweden with regards to these issues.

However, Swedish stakeholders suggest that as long as no offset claims are made for on the affected land, the associated risks can be minimized. Climate change is likely to increase the risk of disturbances, such as pests, storms, wildfires, and droughts, which makes carbon storage in forests uncertain as a climate mitigation strategy. In this sense, the permanent storage provided by biochar and BECCS is less susceptible to risks, although the issue of permanence still needs clarification. Additionally, climate disturbances will affect biomass availability, indirectly impacting the deployment of other LMTs.

Forest Management

The management of forests in Sweden is highlighted as a crucial factor in achieving climate neutrality, as forests sequester carbon and can replace fossil fuels as a source of energy as biomass. The analysis emphasizes the importance of sustainable forest management practices in the Swedish forestry sector, balancing production goals with conservation efforts.

While land competition is not a major concern within the Swedish forestry sector, it does influence decisions regarding the replication or expansion of specific forestry measures. Generally, reduced agricultural land and increased food imports are not prioritized due to national health, food security, and climate impact considerations. Commercial development for non-land activities also receives lower priority, and social and cultural factors are increasingly being considered when choosing between intensive forest harvesting practices and low-impact management solutions, particularly in indigenous areas of northern Sweden.

Afforestation is already extensively implemented in Sweden, and there are few risks associated with scaling it up further. However, negative environmental consequences have been observed when large areas are populated with species that are poorly adapted to the local environment or monocultures.

Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

In conclusion, BECCS, biochar, and forest resource management are key components of Sweden's land-based mitigation technologies portfolio. BECCS is the primary technology for achieving net-zero emissions by 2045. Biochar, with its diverse co-benefits and potential applications, plays a complementary role. Recent government investigations estimate that BECCS could remove 1 million tonnes of CO2-eq per year by 2030 and between 3 to 10 million tonnes per year by 2045. Biochar, as part of increased carbon sink efforts in forests and land, is expected to remove 1.2 million tonnes of CO2-eq per year by 2030 and a minimum of 2.7 million tonnes per year by 2045. However, there are still significant uncertainties, and Sweden remains open to exploring other negative emission technologies to enhance emission reduction.

To achieve net-zero emissions by 2045, successful deployment and upscaling of these technologies are crucial. Policy support, economic incentives, and international cooperation are necessary to fully realize the potential of these LMTs in contributing to negative emissions and climate goals.