Models
In LANDMARC we are using a suite of computer models to assess the impact of potential Land Based Mitigation Technologies. These models can simulate the climate, land use, environmental and economic change associated with the roll out of a particular technology. Our case studies are all using different combinations of these models. Our models are briefly described below.
DayCent
Daycent is a daily time series biogeochemical model used in agroecosystems to simulates fluxes of carbon and nitrogen between the atmosphere, vegetation, and soil.
Model inputs include daily maximum/minimum air temperature and precipitation, surface soil texture class, and land cover/use data. Model outputs include daily fluxes of various N-gas species (e.g., N2O, NOx, N2); daily CO2 flux from heterotrophic soil respiration; soil organic C and N; net primary productivity; daily water and nitrate (NO3) leaching, and other ecosystem parameters. Daycent has been tested with data from various native and managed systems
ALCES
The ALCES software creates cumulative effect models that simulates changes in landscape composition and related indicators in response to LMTs and other drivers, such as natural disturbances and climate change.
ALCES will be communicating scenario outcomes via web-based dashboards made of dynamics maps and graphs. This tool also has the capacity for comprehensive simulation of co-benefits as is required for trade-off analysis across case-studies.
LandSHIFT
LandSHIFT (Land Simulation to Harmonize and Integrate Freshwater Availability and the Terrestrial Environment) is a land use change model for global and regional scale simulation experiments. its principal objective is to simulate the interactions of socio-economic drivers and the biophysical environment determining land use and land use changes and to assess the impacts of these changes on human society and the environment. The model design aims at delivering a tool that can play a central role in scenario analysis projects.
E3ME
The E3ME model is a macro-econometric model with global coverage designed to address major economic and economy-environment policy challenges. E3ME features integrated treatment of the world’s economies, energy systems, emissions and material demand. This enables it to capture two-way linkages and feedbacks between these components. The model is characterized by a high level of disaggregation, enabling detailed analysis of sectoral and country-level effects in global analysis.
EC-Earth-3
EC-Earth is developed as part of a Europe-wide consortium thus promoting international cooperation and access to knowledge and a wide data base. EC-Earth’s main objective is to develop and apply an ESM based on ECMWFs seasonal forecasting system for providing trustworthy climate information to climate services and to advance scientific knowledge on the Earth system, its variability, predictability and long-term changes resulting from external forcing.
CMIP6
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) is a climate modeling project that brings together 49 different modelling groups. Includes all the climate projection models and simulations that will be considered in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 6th Assemssment Period. (AR6).
Net Primary Production (NPP) describes the rate at which carbon dioxide is converted into biomass through photosynthesis minus the rate at which it is released by respiration. It can be calculated based on the principles of Monteith (1981) to describe ecosystem productivity in response to solar radiation.
Our approach uses satellite observations and meteorological data as inputs. Instruments on board of the Landsat-8 and the twin Sentinel-2 satellites for instance measure the amount of solar radiation reflected by the Earth surface at high resolution. Because land reflectance depends on the characteristics of soil and vegetation, these satellite observations allow the retrieval of useful biophysical parameters to monitor changes in the agriculture, forestry and other land use sector. The model will be calibrated and validated using ground measurements of carbon fluxes and will be tested to estimate carbon sequestration.
Earth Observation Techniques
LANDMARC’s case studies are using satellite and aerial observation techniques to provide detailed data on our case study areas. This data can be used to both feed and validate our modelling work. The two main tehcniques we are using are described below.
Sentinel-5
The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Sentinal-5 satellite measures the solar-induced fluorescence reflecting off the earths surfaces, and also measures the atmospheric concentrations of the air pollutants nitrogen oxide and formaldehyde. Solar-induced fluorescence is a direct measure for carbon-capturing photosynthetic activity by vegetation.
This data will be used for the first time in LANDMARC to evaluate the potential of LMT for negative emissions while considering effects on air quality. For all case study plots, TROPOMI fluorescence will be collected and validated against in-situ information, to evaluate the potential of upscaling the fluorescence data as a proxy for changes in land cover, land use, vegetation characteristics and carbon uptake on a global scale.
LIDAR
Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) technology can provide data on forest heights by photogrammetry remote sensing. With this data, the carbon sequestration potential of the forest mass can be calculated and evaluated. Using vegetation transformation equations, according to botanical species and tree size, a high precision estimate of the decarbonization potential of the mapped forest can be calculated.
LANDMARC will apply two methods to estimate of the forest biomass, based on inventory data: 1) biomass expansion factors that transforms the volume of wood in dry matter weight of the tree, and 2) biomass estimation equations; relates the dry weight of the biomass with some variable of the tree; generally the diameter and height.