Indonesia’s Scenarios for Land Based Mitigation – A Summary for Policymakers

In a new report, we go through the possible ways our LMT portfolio for Indonesia could become widely adopted in that country. We call these scaling scenarios.

These scenarios can be used to develop simulation models that can reliably estimate how much carbon could be stored in each of these scenarios.  Reliable estimates are pretty useful:  they can potentially inform everything from individual farmers’ soil management practices, to national climate plans and international climate negotiations.

Our Indonesia portfolio has four LMTs in it. These are:

1. forest management

2. agriculture optimisation and agroforestry

3. peatland management

4. soil carbon enhancement

Here are some potential benefits associated with scaling up each LMT that policymakers should be aware of – as well as some of the possible risks and barriers.

The full scenario analysis for Burkina Faso can be found here, with key messages summarized in the sections below.

Forest Management and agroforestry

While forests cover 65% of Indonesia's total land area, deforestation is a significant issue. Betweeen 2002 and 2019, Indonesia lost 26.8 million ha of tree, contributing to the release of 10.9 Gt of CO2 emissions.

To combat deforestation rates, the Indonesian government relies largely on reforestation and afforestation, coupled with fire prevention measures.

In the National Forestry Plan 2011-2030, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MOEF) committed to rehabilitating 11.55 million hectares of degraded forest and land by 2030. To achieve this target, it employs two distinct strategies: intensive rehabilitation and incentive rehabilitation. Intensive rehabilitation focuses on priority areas and relies solely on government funding, whereas incentive rehabilitation involves engaging local communities in reward-based rehabilitation activities. The incentive approach aims to provide financial incentives to local communities that demonstrate their commitment to maintaining and rehabilitating forested areas near their residences.

Agroforestry is another LMt with potential in Indonesia. It offers numerous benefits for sustainability, including an increase in spatial diversity and biodiversity, providing a more attractive habitat for insects, birds, and wildlife. It also improves soil structure and health, and promotes agricultural system resilience. Finally agroforestry can also serve as an alternative income source for land users, enhancing food security and acting as a carbon sink in Indonesia.

So while increasing Indonesia’s forests through afforestation, forest management, or agroforestry would be good for biodiversity, carbon capture, and provide economic incentives to local communities, there are potential risks that must be addressed. One of these stems from the fact that there are other sectors of the economy wanting to make use of Indonesia’s available land.

 In areas like Java Island, for example, the demand for residential and industrial land is high. This means land-owners have a strong financial incentives to sell their land to housing developers rather than using it for afforestation or agroforestry. Another concern is "emission leaking" or "emission displacement," where local farmers move from protected forest land to currently unprotected areas, potentially causing forest degradation or deforestation due to firewood or timber collection. These risks need careful consideration to ensure the sustainable implementation of forestry practices.

Agricultural optimization

While the agricultural sector in Indonesia accounts for 13% of its total greenhouse gas emissions, the government’s main concern for the sector is food security. This is partly because the sector extremely vulnerable to climate change. As a result, much of the government’s efforts focusing on adapting to ongoing climate change.

Fortunately, Indonesia is trying to improve food security and adapt to climate change adaptation is by implementing schemes that are also carbon-negative, and which will lower the sector’s overall emissions.

For example, climate change in Indonesia results in lower soil health, a higher uncertainty in water availability, and erratic weather changes. In order to adapt to this new reality, rice farmers are being encouraged to switch to intermittent flooding irrigation to lower their reliance on water. While intermitted flooding irrigation new practice is being encouraged in order to increase the yield of Indonesia’s important crops in the context of less reliable water supplies, this irrigation method also results in fields releasing less methane than they would otherwise.

Peatland Restoration

Peatland management in Indonesia involves various strategies to address climate change and protect wetlands. The Peatland and Mangrove Restoration Agency (BRGM) leads a national program engaging stakeholders to control climate change in wetlands. Rewetting plays a crucial role in maintaining water levels to prevent excessive drainage and fire risks, while revegetation involves planting endemic vegetation to sustain peat formation. Revitalization aims to align economic activities with peatland preservation, and BRGM's targets include restoring 3.35 million ha of degraded peatland by 2024.

Peatland restoration offers co-benefits for agricultural production, reducing nitrogen emissions and contributing to the local economy through paludiculture and carbon farming. However, risks such as infrastructure obstacles, policy execution challenges, and trade imbalances need to be addressed. The provincial policy and national strategy should align better to overcome conflicting priorities. The economic challenges relate to community business development and market dominance, and BRGM provides entrepreneurial training to empower farmers. Addressing internal issues and enhancing product quality can positively impact farmers and attract more clients.

Overall, peatland restoration efforts hold significant potential for environmental, agricultural, and economic benefits, but effective coordination, infrastructure development, and alignment between national and local policies are essential to overcome challenges and ensure successful implementation.

Soil Carbon Enhancement

Soil carbon enhancement in Indonesia is a another national priority, with waste management identified as a key sector to target. The government aims to reduce waste emissions by 94% from 2024 to 2030. As our report shows, the conversion of lowland rainforest to grassland led to a significant decrease in soil organic matter. Supplementing carbon to soils through compost, manure, and anaerobic digestion can improve organic matter levels in agricultural lands and create carbon sinks.

In terms of policy context, the government has issued regulations to reduce emissions and manage waste effectively. The agricultural sector has implemented various strategies, including rice intensification and low-emission varieties, to reduce emissions. However, challenges arise from competing land use, infrastructure obstacles, and institutional mismatches.

In the agricultural industry, behavioral resistance to change, limited resources, and investment problems pose risks. Livestock integration, biogas, and organic-based village projects are targeted to reduce carbon emissions. The integration of livestock and organic practices leads to mutual benefits, such as higher rice production. Integrated farming or carbon precision farming, with the use of compost and animal feed, can further enhance soil carbon levels and sustainability.

Conclusion

For more information about these LMTs (as well as other possible LMTs we considered – including BECCS and biochar) check out the full report.