Germany’s Scenarios for Land Based Mitigation – A Summary for Policymakers
We’ve identified a portfolio of land-based mitigation technologies and practices (LMTs for short) that stakeholders across Germany’s land-use sector consider to be the best suited to the German context.
These include BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage), afforestation, forest management, conservation of carbon in agricultural mineral soils, and preservation of carbon in organic soils and wetlands.
Our scenario analysis report for Germany looks at a range of scenarios in which this portfolio could be realized. These scenarios depict some possible ways our Germany portfolio could become widely adopted. This analysis is really useful for us. We’re using it to develop a set of tools and methods that anyone can use to reliably estimate how much carbon could be stored in each of these scenarios. This can inform everything from individual farmers’ soil management practices, to national climate plans and international climate negotiations.
The full scenario analysis for Germany can be found here, with key messages summarized in the sections below.
BECCS Within the Industrial and Energy Sector
BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage) is a particularly promising LMT in Germany. According to one scenario, it is projected that by 2050, the industrial sector will contribute approximately 34 Mt CO2e in negative emissions, with an additional 3 Mt CO2e from the energy sector. The industrial sector is expected to primarily employ post-CO2 combustion techniques, while the energy sector will utilize oxyfuel technology. Both processes are estimated to achieve a minimum CO2 removal rate of 90%.
Afforestation and Forest Management in Germany
Afforestation is another LMT that is important in the German context. Currently, German forests play a significant role in generating negative emissions, making the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector a net sink. In 2018, forests in Germany absorbed approximately 67 Mt CO2e. Furthermore, there was an additional net storage of 3 Mt CO2e through harvested wood products.
Assessing the afforestation potential in a densely populated country like Germany, with high competition for land use, is quite difficult. The estimates by BMEL (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture) suggest that there is a potential for afforestation on approximately 5% of the agricultural area, which amounts to around 850,000 hectares by 2050. However, it's important to note that in 2018, only about 17,730 hectares, mostly consisting of grassland, were converted into forests based on the latest National Inventory Report. The feasibility of this option is limited by the availability of suitable land for conversion into forests.
Conservation of carbon in agricultural mineral soils
Another crucial LMT is the conservation and enhancement of carbon content in agricultural mineral soils. This approach involves implementing practices like intercropping, organic farming, and agroforestry, which contribute to increased carbon storage in the soil. Similarly, by conserving carbon in organic soils and restoring wetlands, emissions can be reduced through the rewetting of drained peatlands and the protection of existing carbon stocks.
Several studies have examined the potential of measures aimed at avoiding emissions from organic soils. If these measures are implemented, it is projected that emissions could be reduced by 7 Mt CO2e by 2030 and 18 Mt CO2e by 2050. Key components of these scenarios include the rewetting and extensification of arable land and grassland. However, it is important to address challenges such as competition for arable land and the need for cost-effective alternatives for horticulture substrates.
Challenges with Durability (Permanence) of Carbon Sinks
One important issue addressed in the report is the durability or reversibility of these measures; that is, how effectively carbon can remain stored away from the atmosphere over the long term. It highlights that if land is drained again, emissions can be released, emphasizing the importance of making permanent changes in land use to ensure lasting climate protection. Moreover, climate-related risks such as droughts, fires, and heatwaves can affect the effectiveness of rewetting measures.
Nevertheless, the report emphasizes that promoting forest resilience, preserving biodiversity, and implementing sustainable land management practices are crucial steps in mitigating climate change and attaining climate goals. By adopting these approaches, we can enhance the ability of ecosystems to withstand environmental changes and play a significant role in mitigating the impacts of climate change. It underscores the need to take a comprehensive and sustainable approach to land management to achieve long-term climate resilience and a sustainable future.
Synergies and conflicts with other societal goals
Implementing these LMTs may introduce synergies and conflicts with other societal goals. For example, afforestation and forest management can have positive effects on biodiversity and water infiltration, but they might encounter challenges such as competition for land and conflicts with agricultural interests. Similarly, conserving and enhancing carbon content in agricultural soils can improve soil fertility and water absorption, but it is important to consider nutrient balance and potential issues related to pollutants.
The report also emphasizes the significance of avoiding CO2 emissions from drained organic soils in Germany in order to maintain a net sink in the land use sector. It highlights that undrained grassland and cropland produce minimal CO2 emissions, but when drained, they can result in substantial emissions. Raising the water table to restore peatlands is identified as a method to capture and store carbon from the atmosphere.
Implementing rewetting measures not only has synergies with water balance, soil protection, biodiversity, climate resilience, and fire risk reduction, but conflicts can also arise with other land uses and the economic viability of rural regions. Therefore, accompanying measures such as reducing meat and dairy consumption should be implemented to complement and support these efforts.
Peat extraction and reduction strategies in Germany
Peat extraction represents another significant source of emissions in Germany. In 2018, approximately 4 million cubic meters of peat were extracted, primarily in Lower Saxony, with an equivalent amount being imported. Peat extraction has been carried out on drained agricultural land since 1980. To address this issue, the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) intends to develop a peat reduction strategy aimed at phasing out peat use in the private sector and substantially reducing its usage in commercial horticulture. Ongoing research is exploring the potential use of peat moss from paludiculture cultivation as a substitute.
Raising the water table on managed organic soils effectively prevents emissions but imposes limitations on intensive uses such as pasture, fodder cropland, or the cultivation of common crops. However, alternative approaches like extensive pasture management and the cultivation of paludiculture crops can help avoid emissions resulting from peat decomposition while contributing to biodiversity conservation. By adopting such practices, it becomes possible to strike a balance between climate mitigation efforts and the preservation of diverse ecosystems.
Conclusions & Policy Recommendations
The report emphasizes the critical importance of employing a combination of LMTs to achieve climate neutrality and protect the environment in Germany. These techniques offer valuable tools for sustainable land management, with potential benefits including climate protection, soil health improvement, and biodiversity conservation.
To ensure sufficient capacity for net carbon sequestration in the future, emissions from land use, particularly from arable land and grassland, must be reduced by more than half from the current level of over 40 Mt CO2e. Additionally, it is necessary to restore the sink capacity of forests to approximately the current level.
By ambitiously protecting organic soils, for example, through rewetting measures, emissions from land use can be avoided while creating valuable habitats for various wetland species. Furthermore, long-term carbon sequestration can be achieved through more extensive management practices in resilient mixed and deciduous forests, afforestation initiatives, and the establishment of woody structures on agricultural land. These LMTs also contribute to biodiversity protection in densely forested areas and create new valuable habitats.
However, the potential of LMTs in Germany is limited. All mitigation measures require significant changes in land management to some extent, and they may directly or indirectly conflict with one another or with other land uses, such as the expansion of settlements due to land demand. When implementing mitigation measures that impact agricultural or forestry production, displacement effects need to be considered. Accompanying measures like livestock reduction and changes in consumption patterns can help address these issues and ensure a balanced approach.
